The Prop King - been hitting 65% on these...

[Cutler'sThumb]

I've been following this guy for about 3 weeks and he has been money with these prop bets, hanging around 65% and doing pretty good volume.
I'll try to post all his plays here (CFB,NFL), but timing can be an issue for me to do the copy/paste thing.
The lines are from his local. I used 5Dimes and Bovada to tail, although it 5D's lines are juiced and Bovada doesn't have all the plays. Sportsbook has all the props, but, as most know, they don't have the best reputation. I did a little digging on several forums and it looks like they haven't had trouble for the last few years (outside of a big blackjack payout dispute I saw on SBR). As long as I'm willing to be patient, it looks like they're paying, so I've switched to them for these plays.

Feel free to follow or just@).

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814602	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81002] TOTAL u219½-155 (J VANDENBERG (IOW) PASS YDS vrs J VANDENBERG (IOW) PASS YDS)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814603	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81006] TOTAL u70½-155 (K DAVIS (IOW) RECV YDS vrs K DAVIS (IOW) RECV YDS)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814604	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81016] TOTAL u94½-155 (V MARK (NOW) RSH YDS vrs V MARK (NOW) RSH YDS)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814605	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81023] TOTAL o243½-155 (D ASH (TEX) PASS YDS vrs D ASH (TEX) PASS YDS)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814606	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81025] TOTAL o1½-190 (D ASH (TEX) TD PASSES vrs D ASH (TEX) TD PASSES)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814607	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81028] TOTAL u75½-115 (J BERGERON (TEX) RSH YDS vrs J BERGERON (TEX) RSH YDS)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814608	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81058] TOTAL u20½-175 (T BRAY (TEN) CMPS vrs T BRAY (TEN) CMPS)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814609	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81060] TOTAL u252½-155 (T BRAY (TEN) PASS YDS vrs T BRAY (TEN) PASS YDS)
Oct 27 08:21 AM by: INTERNET	36814610	MU	Oct 27 12:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81064] TOTAL u72½-155 (J HUNTER (TEN) RECV YDS vrs J HUNTER (TEN) RECV YDS)
Oct 27 08:51 AM by: INTERNET	36815728	MU	Oct 27 03:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81074] TOTAL u22½-145 (B HUNDLEY (UCL) CMPS vrs B HUNDLEY (UCL) CMPS)
Oct 27 08:51 AM by: INTERNET	36815729	MU	Oct 27 03:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81082] TOTAL u55½-135 (S EVANS (UCL) RECV YDS vrs S EVANS (UCL) RECV YDS)
Oct 27 08:51 AM by: INTERNET	36815730	MU	Oct 27 03:00 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81087] TOTAL o4½-155 (C COYLE (ASU) RECS vrs C COYLE (ASU) RECS)
Oct 27 08:51 AM by: INTERNET	36815731	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81105] TOTAL o1½-220 (EJ MANUEL (FLS) TD PASSES vrs EJ MANUEL (FLS) TD PASSES)
Oct 27 08:51 AM by: INTERNET	36815732	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81108] TOTAL u83½-135 (J WILDER JR (FLS) RSH YDS vrs J WILDER JR (FLS) RSH YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816747	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81124] TOTAL u105½-135 (M LEE (USC) RECV YDS vrs M LEE (USC) RECV YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816748	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81142] TOTAL u22-135 (T BOYKIN (TCU) CMPS vrs T BOYKIN (TCU) CMPS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816749	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81144] TOTAL u65½-135 (BJ CATALON (TCU) RSH YDS vrs BJ CATALON (TCU) RSH YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816750	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81150] TOTAL u104½-135 (J RANDLE (OKS) RSH YDS vrs J RANDLE (OKS) RSH YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816751	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81520] TOTAL u19½-175 (A MAXWELL (MIS) CMPS vrs A MAXWELL (MIS) CMPS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816752	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81522] TOTAL u227½-155 (A MAXWELL (MIS) PASS YDS vrs A MAXWELL (MIS) PASS YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816753	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81526] TOTAL u40½-155 (K MUMPHERY (MIS) RECV YDS vrs K MUMPHERY (MIS) RECV YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816754	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81535] TOTAL o12½-175 (J DRISKEL (FLO) CMPS vrs J DRISKEL (FLO) CMPS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816755	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81538] TOTAL u47½-155 (J DRISKEL (FLO) RSH YDS vrs J DRISKEL (FLO) RSH YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816756	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81543] TOTAL o1½-165 (F HAMMOND (FLO) RECS vrs F HAMMOND (FLO) RECS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816757	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81548] TOTAL u20½-175 (A MURRAY (GEO) CMPS vrs A MURRAY (GEO) CMPS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816758	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81550] TOTAL u263½-155 (A MURRAY (GEO) PASS YDS vrs A MURRAY (GEO) PASS YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816759	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81556] TOTAL u67½-155 (T KING (GEO) RECV YDS vrs T KING (GEO) RECV YDS)
Oct 27 09:14 AM by: INTERNET	36816760	MU	Oct 27 03:30 PM	STRAIGHT BET [81558] TOTAL u3½-175 (M MITCHELL (GEO) RECS vrs M MITCHELL (GEO) RECS)

 

[CFBFan]

Not criticizing, just trying to understand ... How are you making any money at these with the Odds you are laying. At -155 and above, even at 65% winners you are still in the hole.

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Oct 27 09:51 AM by: INTERNET

36819312

MU

Oct 27 05:30 PM

STRAIGHT BET [81160] TOTAL u56½-125 (D SMITH (OHS) RECV YDS vrs D SMITH (OHS) RECV YDS)

68/54

 

[swirv]

Thanks

 

[swirv]

Not criticizing, just trying to understand ... How are you making any money at these with the Odds you are laying. At -155 and above, even at 65% winners you are still in the hole.

Yeah he only gets a few units each week so the 65% is very misleading without saying the number of units won. Apparently his juice is high cause he got cut everywhere else. You can get all these at sportsbook for around a ton less juice

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Not criticizing, just trying to understand ... How are you making any money at these with the Odds you are laying. At -155 and above, even at 65% winners you are still in the hole.

Yes, obviously this isn't the same as hitting 65% at -110, but it has still been profitable. The juice today is a little higher than usual, but even at -55 you would profitable at 65%. This is the record and units since week 1 of CFB:

Overall (314-171) 65% +82.55 Units

 

[swirv]

I followed the majority for about a half unit each, ran out of money for the last games

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Yeah he only gets a few units each week so the 65% is very misleading without saying the number of units won. Apparently his juice is high cause he got cut everywhere else. You can get all these at sportsbook for around a ton less juice

Hey Swirv, I found this guy on SBR and he has been very effective. Between you and him I decided to brave the waters at Sportsbook precisely because of the juice issue. You are exactly right about him being cut off. He's been doing it for several years apparently and been limited big time at the online books.

 

[mws]

Thx for posting. Good luck.

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here's all the plays since last Thursday (10/18). +5.74 units over that time.

Fridays Plays
Kelce Under 49.5 Rec. Yards (-140) Win
Bridgewater Pass Comp. Over 19.5 (-115) Win

Thursday Night Plays
T.Boyd rushing yards under 39½ -125 Win
D.Hopkins receiving yards under 102½ -130 Win
D.Martin rushing yards under 65½ -135 Lost


Monday's Night Football Plays
3-1 (2.85 Units)
M. Leshoure Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Lost
N. Burleson Under 48.5 Rec. Yards (-115) Win
K. Davis Under 25.5 Rec. Yards (-125) Win
Petigrew Under 54.5 Rec. Yards (-140) Win

Sunday's Plays
11-5 (+3.45 Units)
TOTAL o19½-190 (RGRIFFIN III (WAS) CMPS Win
TOTAL o228½-155 (R GRIFFIN III (WAS) PASS YDS Win
TOTAL o2½-135 (J MORGAN (WAS) RECS Lost
TOTAL u49½-155 (J COOK (TEN) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u55½-135 (A GREEN (GB) RSH YDS Win
TOTAL u58½-155 (R COBB (GB) RECV YDS Lost
TOTAL u2-155 (S SMITH (STL) RECS Lost
TOTAL o1½-200 (T ROMO (DAL) TD PASS Lost
TOTAL u50½-135 (D WILLIAMS (CAR) RSH YDS Win
D. Keller Over 2.5 rec. -145 Win
T. Brady Under 305 pass yards -120 Win
W. Welker Under 92.5 rec. yards +100 Win
Thomas Under 2.5 rec. -160 Win
Myers Under 3.5 rec. -110 Lost
Myers Under 47.5 rec. yards -115 Win
A. Dalton Under 23 Comp. -115Win
Saturday's Plays
20-17 (-4.85 Units)
TOTAL u136½-110 (M BALL (WIS) RSH YDS Lost
TOTAL u252½-175 (L THOMAS (VTU) PASS YDS WIn
TOTAL o20½-140 (M HOLMES (VTU) RSH YDS Lost
TOTAL u82½-135 (M DAVIS (VTU) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u7-115 (D HOPKINS (CLM) RECS Win
TOTAL u1114-140 (D HOPKINS (CLM) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u103½-120 (C HYDE (OHS) RSH YDS Win
TOTAL u63½-150 (D SMITH (OHS) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u59½-120 (O BECKHAM (LSU) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u85½-165 (CJ ANDERSON (CAL) RSH YDS Win
TOTAL u210½-135 (T MARTINEZ (NEB) PASS YDS Lost
TOTAL u65½-135 (T MARTINEZ (NEB) RSH YDS Win
u67½-155 (K BELL (NEB) RECV YDS Lost
TOTAL u71½-130 (Q PAYTON (NCS) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u65½-160 (S DIGGS (MAR) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u6½-175 (C HOFFMAN (BYU) RECS Lost
TOTAL u80½-115 (C HOFFMAN (BYU) RECV YDS Lost
TOTAL u70½-135 (C WOOD (NOD) RSH YDS Lost
TOTAL u48½-135 (J GRANT (TET) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u63½-155 (BJ CATALON (TCU) RSH YDS Lost
TOTAL u20-165 (BJ DANIELS (SFL) CMPS Lost
TOTAL u252½-135 (BJ DANIELS (SFL) PASS YDS Win
TOTAL u59½-125 (T MITCHELL (SFL) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u36½-155 (D BYRD (SCA) RECV YDS Lost
TOTAL o13½-115 (J DRISKEL (FLO) CMPS Lost
TOTAL u63½-110 (J HUNTER (TEN) RECV YDS Lost
TOTAL u19½-115 (G SMITH (WVU) RSH YDS Win
TOTAL u55½-155 (D ANDERSON (UTA) Win
TOTAL u3½-150 (J MURPHY (UTA) Lost
TOTAL o20½-150 (C VAZ (ORS) CMPS Lost
TOTAL o280½-135 (C VAZ (ORS) PASS YDS Lost
TOTAL u99½-115 (B COOKS (ORS) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL u88½-115 (A MUEMA (SDS) RSH YDS Win
TOTAL u85½-135 (T REESE (BAY) RECV YDS Win
TOTAL o22½-115 (D ASH (TEX) CMPS vrs D ASH Lost
TOTAL o286½-115 (D ASH (TEX) PASS YDS Lost
D.Robinson pass receptions under 3 -180 Win

Friday's Plays
2-1 (+.45 Units)
M.Sales receiving yards under 85½ -150* Win
J.Smith rushing yards under 69½ -155* Lost
R.Nassib pass completions under 24 -170 Win


Thursday's Plays
4-2 (+1.70 Units)
D.Piland passing yards under 329½ +100 WIN
TOTAL u23-135 (G GILBERT (SMU) CMPS vrs G GILBERT (SMU) CMPS) PUSH
TOTAL u119½-115 (C SIMS (HOU) RSH YDS vrs C SIMS (HOU) RSH YDS) WIN
K.Barner rushing yards under 109½ -115 LOST
B.Addison pass receptions under 3 -140 WIN
M.Lynch rushing yards under 75½ -115 LOST
Alex Smith pass completions under 19 -105 WIN

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here are the 7 weeks prior to this past week, but I was only on board for 2 of these, so I can't personally vouch for weeks 1-5. These numbers are CFB and NFL combined. My Bovada account has gone from $1000 to $1400 in that time. This isn't a perfect measure because I was playing some at 5Dimes too (their juice is terrible on prop plays, as I've learned from following Swirv), but that's where I played most of the plays until this week when I switched to Sportsbook.

WEEK 1 (26-15) 63% +7.20 Units

WEEK 2 (29-15) 66% +9.60 Units

WEEK 3 (41-23) 64% +8.85 Units

WEEK 4 (49-16) 79% +26.70 Units

WEEK 5 (37-34) 52% -7.65 Units

WEEK 6 (47-20) 70% +18.20

WEEK 7 (47-22) 68% +17.9 Units

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

I followed the majority for about a half unit each, ran out of money for the last games

Yep, Swirv has the idea here. I just put my plays thru at Sportsbook and saved big time on the juice.
If anyone is interested, Swirv is really solid on his NFL player props and I think he's due for a nice day tomorrow. Check out his thread.
therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=929296

 

[swirv]

This guy might be hard to follow just because the volume is so large, but we'll see.

 

[swirv]

I got 3-6 for the 1:00 games

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Yep, slow start, but lots of plays to go. Still plenty of opportunity to have a solid day.

 

[swirv]

Yep, slow start, but lots of plays to go. Still plenty of opportunity to have a solid day.

You have the late plays?

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

This guy might be hard to follow just because the volume is so large, but we'll see.

Yeah, you can see from the total # of plays that you have to adjust your unit fairly low, otherwise you won't be able to play everything (always best with this kind of system). His NFL volume is closer to yours, however.

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Late Plays:

STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81196] TOTAL u70½-135 (JJ WORTON (UCF) RECV YDS vrs JJ WORTON (UCF) RECV YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81200] TOTAL u345½-135 (R CATO (MRS) PASS YDS vrs R CATO (MRS) PASS YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81204] TOTAL u53½-135 (S BUTLER (MRS) RSH YDS vrs S BUTLER (MRS) RSH YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81206] TOTAL u90½-135 (T SHULER (MRS) RECV YDS vrs T SHULER (MRS) RECV YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81208] TOTAL u6½-140 (A DOBSON (MRS) RECS vrs A DOBSON (MRS) RECS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81210] TOTAL u17-155 (T RUSSELL (MST) CMPS vrs T RUSSELL (MST) CMPS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81216] TOTAL u42½-135 (C BUMPHIS (MST) RECV YDS vrs C BUMPHIS (MST) RECV YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81219] TOTAL o16½-170 (AJ MCCARRON (ALA) CMPS vrs AJ MCCARRON (ALA) CMPS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81510] TOTAL u127½-155 (T WILLIAMS (BAY) RECV YDS vrs T WILLIAMS (BAY) RECV YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81513] TOTAL o54½-155 (S JOHNSON (IOS) RSH YDS vrs S JOHNSON (IOS) RSH YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81594] TOTAL u48½-155 (T RIDDICK (NOD) RSH YDS vrs T RIDDICK (NOD) RSH YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81612] TOTAL u86½-155 (K STILLS (OKL) RECV YDS vrs K STILLS (OKL) RECV YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81616] TOTAL u13½-165 (D ROBINSON (MIC) CMPS vrs D ROBINSON (MIC) CMPS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81618] TOTAL u190½-135 (D ROBINSON (MIC) PASS YDS vrs D ROBINSON (MIC) PASS YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81628] TOTAL u17-120 (T MARTINEZ (NEB) CMPS vrs T MARTINEZ (NEB) CMPS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81633] TOTAL o75½-135 (A ABDULLAH (NEB) RSH YDS vrs A ABDULLAH (NEB) RSH YDS)
STRAIGHT BET	Oct 27	MU [81638] TOTAL u64½-155 (K BELL (NEB) RECV YDS vrs K BELL (NEB) RECV YDS)

 

[swirv]

Yeah, you can see from the total # of plays that you have to adjust your unit fairly low, otherwise you won't be able to play everything (always best with this kind of system). His NFL volume is closer to yours, however.

Yep bad, for me I didn't have enough for the Georgia plays which all look like winners